Global ocean freight markets are set to remain fragile in 2026 as uncertainty around Red Sea shipping routes, uneven vessel deployment, and weak trade demand continue to weigh on the sector, according to Dimerco’s Asia Pacific Monthly Freight Report for January 2026.
Dimerco identifies the Red Sea as one of the most significant risk factors facing the industry. Any premature return of vessels to the route could inject excess capacity into an already oversupplied market, further destabilising freight rates. With global trade volumes yet to show a sustained recovery, the ocean freight market remains highly sensitive to routing decisions and capacity shifts.
Cautious Trade Outlook Despite US–China Tariff Truce
Although the US–China tariff truce has been extended through November 2026, shippers remain cautious. Dimerco notes that clear signs of long-term trade normalisation have yet to emerge, and industry consensus suggests that a meaningful rebound in shipping volumes is unlikely during the first half of the year. As a result, volumes are expected to remain subdued across much of 2026.
Reflecting this uncertainty, Premier Alliance continues to route vessels around the Cape of Good Hope via South Africa, signalling ongoing concerns about Red Sea transits.
Uneven Growth in Global Container Capacity
Global container capacity continues to expand, reaching 33.2 million TEUs in November 2025, up 7.3% year on year. However, Dimerco highlights that capacity growth has been uneven across trade lanes.
Most new capacity has been deployed on routes linking Asia with the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. In contrast, transpacific capacity declined by 2.9%, while transatlantic capacity increased sharply. Capacity growth on Intra-Asia and Asia–Latin America routes remained modest at around 4–4.8%.
This uneven vessel deployment has contributed to congestion on certain regional routes, even as long-haul demand remains weak.
Weak Demand Continues to Pressure Freight Rates
Ocean freight demand remains under pressure, particularly on Asia–US and Asia–Europe routes. Post-holiday slowdowns and continued inventory adjustments in the US and Europe are weighing on volumes. Carrier efforts to support rates through blank sailings and general rate increases have largely proven short-lived, as supply continues to exceed demand in many markets.
Regional Market Conditions
In Northeast Asia, freight demand remains soft, with Taiwan experiencing subdued volumes and pressure on US West Coast rates. January 2026 is expected to mark the seasonal low point, with only limited support from short-term capacity reductions. South Korea is seeing a similar pattern, although strong China–Southeast Asia volumes are tightening space and pushing up local charges.
Across China, ocean freight conditions are shaped by congestion and pre-Chinese New Year demand. In North China, Intra-Asia rates are rising amid port delays, while tight transshipment capacity via Singapore, Port Klang and Kaohsiung is supporting firmer pricing. In East and South China, carriers are planning rate increases and peak season surcharges as pre-holiday restocking accelerates.
Southeast Asia continues to face tight conditions driven by congestion and seasonal demand. Malaysia is experiencing significant delays at Port Klang, while Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are all reporting tightening space and upward pressure on rates ahead of the Chinese New Year. Singapore remains relatively stable, though early booking is advised.
In India, ocean freight rates remain broadly stable despite announced rate increases for January. However, fog-related disruptions in northern regions may impact inland rail and road transport, adding pressure to supply chains.
North America and the Outlook for 2026
In North America, demand remains weak and carrier capacity discipline limited. December 2025 imports are estimated at 1.86 million TEUs, the lowest level since mid-2023. With minimal blank sailings and low idle capacity, near-term market tightening appears unlikely.
Fragile Conditions Set to Persist
Overall, Dimerco’s January 2026 report paints a cautious outlook for the global ocean freight market. Ongoing Red Sea uncertainty, uneven capacity deployment, muted demand, and persistent congestion are expected to keep conditions fragile throughout the year. Until global trade activity shows clearer signs of recovery, ocean freight markets are likely to remain volatile and highly sensitive to operational disruptions.
