The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is driving demand for air cargo capacity while helping support global trade despite tariffs and geopolitical disruptions, according to the latest DHL Globalisation Tracker.
The report, produced by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business, found that strong demand for AI-related goods such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment has become an important driver of international trade.
Trade in AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, with that share increasing to 76% in the first quarter of 2026, based on WTO and OECD analysis highlighted by the Globalisation Tracker.
AI Goods Drive Air Cargo Demand
The expansion of AI infrastructure is generating significant demand for the movement of specialised technology components across international supply chains.
Semiconductors, networking equipment and other AI-enabling products require fast and reliable logistics, making air freight an important transport mode for businesses involved in the rapidly expanding AI ecosystem.
Recent analysis has also shown that air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is increasingly being used for AI and semiconductor shipments rather than traditional e-commerce cargo.
The strong flow of AI-related goods has contributed to increased trade within Asia, where manufacturers and technology suppliers are closely connected to global AI infrastructure demand.
Global Trade Remains Resilient
The Globalisation Tracker found that global goods trade grew faster during the first half of 2026 than in any half-year over the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional rebound following the Covid-19 pandemic.
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest regional trade growth, with trade value increasing 24% during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Europe recorded 12% growth, while Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 11%.
East Asia and the Pacific also saw the share of trade remaining within the region increase from 57% in 2025 to 60% during the first five months of 2026, reflecting strong regional supply chains supporting AI-related manufacturing and trade.
Geopolitical Disruptions Continue to Affect Supply Chains
Despite the resilience of global trade, geopolitical disruptions have continued to affect specific markets and transport corridors.
The conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply chains and led airlines to suspend or reduce cargo operations to some destinations in the region.
The impact was particularly significant for economies dependent on the Strait. The value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
US tariffs also reached their highest levels in decades, although the Globalisation Tracker said their broader global impact remained limited. Businesses and countries have increasingly looked towards alternative markets and new trade agreements to maintain international supply chains.
Global Trade Outlook
The Globalisation Tracker projects that global goods trade will expand by an average of 3.4% annually through 2029, above the 2.7% annual growth rate recorded during the previous decade.
The outlook highlights the resilience of international trade and the growing importance of specialised global supply chains.
As AI infrastructure investment continues, the movement of semiconductors, networking equipment and other technology components is expected to remain an important source of demand for international logistics and air cargo capacity.
